đ§ Thoughts & Readings
a stroke of genius: striving for greatness in all you do
We are concerned with great research here. Work that will get wide recognition, perhaps even win a Nobel Prize. As most people realize, the average published paper is read by the author, the referee, and perhaps one other person. Classic papers are read by thousands. We are concerned with research that will matter in the long run and become more than a footnote in history. (âŚ)
If you are to do important work then you must work on the right problem at the right time and in the right way. Without any one of the three, you may do good work but you will almost certainly miss real greatness. (âŚ)
Most scientists spend almost all of their time working on problems that even they admit are neither great or are likely to lead to great work; hence, almost surely, they will not do important work.
Almost everyone is afraid of failing (i.e. not living up to their own expectations) and this certainly contributes to many scientists (and people in general) not attempting great things [1] . What if we reduced the odds of complete failure by making multiple bets?
A simple 2 x 2 for choices
Consider a portfolio of projects. Some of them have a very high likelihood of working out, and each one of these outcomes is pleasant, if not game-changing.Â
And then, mix into that some of the moonshot projects that most people are afraid to take on. Theyâre afraid because they have equated âlow chance of successâ with ârisky.â Theyâre not the same. Risky implies that failure will cost a lot. It wonât. You can thrive with this strategy because you have a portfolio, and because you realize that âunlikelyâ is not the same as ânot worth trying.â
Splitting up time and resources comes with the drawback of a significant reduction in focus. However, if it increases the overall hours of work spent on moonshots it might be worth the sacrifice [2].
Preliminary conclusions:
Be brave enough to have a moonshot project (either as part of a portfolio, or if you are seeking out that adrenalin kick, as a standalone project)
The current scientific incentive system doesnât seem to honor researchers that attempt (but donât solve) big problems. Maybe there should be a hall of fame for those who almost did something great.
Students should be encouraged to work on big problems for their graduation theses - the cost of failure is small in the early career stage. [3]
What are your thoughts on this? Would love to further discuss - just write me on Slack or Email if youâd be up for a virtual coffee break.
đ¤ Learnings
đ Currently deep diving into: Personal Finance & Sustainable Investing đ¸
Put your money into buckets.
Discovered the envelope budgeting system this week [4]. Based on what I know about humans savings behavior, a digital version of this technique seems like a promising, yet simple way to handle your personal finances.
Every month, after you receive your salary you immediately transfer the money to dedicated sub-bank accounts [5]. How you define the buckets is up to you, its just important to put a label on the money as soon as you have it. This allows you to have a complete overview of your expenses and prevents sugarcoating your own spending behavior.
⨠Random
Interested in the discovery process of the COVID-19 vaccine? Check out this article on reverse engineering the source code of the BioNTech/Pfizer SARS-CoV-2 vaccine
Read an article on Austrian minister Aschbacher who resigned due to plagiarism allegations. Put the published paragraph of her thesis into GPT-2. One of the first autocomplete suggestions was: âYouâll never have to come backâ.
[1] Rothblum, Esther. (1990). Fear of Failure.
[2] If we assume that people who dedicate their whole life to a moonshot project would do so anyways, the option to âwork part-timeâ towards moonshots would result in an increase of the total number of hours spent on big problems, as it will bring people to work on moonshots who wouldnât have done so otherwise. However, you could also argue that âallowingâ for the option of project portfolios discourages people to go all-in and thus doesnât result in an overall increase. Iâd regard the first theory as more likely but donât have any evidence for this.
[3] If you know someone currently looking for a thesis topic - the Effective Thesis project is a good place to start.
[4] Yes, I am completely new to the topic of personal finance, thus decided to start entirely from scratch.
[5] Not all banks allow for creating digital sub-accounts, you would have to check if your bank provides this service. Some ânewâ banks such as e.g. N26 and Tomorrow already offer a feature that enables bucketing. Alternatively, it is also an option to sign up for a free account at an online bank and use this as a bucket (then youâll even have separate debit cards for your buckets).